This discussion is presented by the CERI research group Africa: citizenship, violence and politics and the Africa Programme.

Examining the JNIM and the strategic hurdles of militant growth

Since its emergence in 2017, the Al-Qaeda affiliate known as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has solidified its position as a dominant armed force within the central Sahel. Operating across Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, the group’s various katibas have challenged state authorities for territorial governance and control, making it a focal point of Mali current affairs.

Starting in 2019, the trajectory of JNIM began shifting southward from the Sahel toward the Gulf of Guinea. The group has claimed responsibility for significant incursions in northern Benin, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire. While this movement suggests a calculated strategy by JNIM leadership, the expansion remains uneven and complex. For instance, Ghana has remained largely untouched, and while Côte d’Ivoire experienced attacks between 2020 and 2022, the group has since halted claims of armed action there. Conversely, the security landscape in Benin saw a sharp decline throughout 2025.

The internal friction of territorial growth

A recent report by the International Crisis Group investigates the unpredictable geography of this expansion. The findings suggest that territorial growth is not always a straightforward objective but often represents a strategic paradox for the organization. Decision-makers within the group frequently disagree on priorities; failing to expand risks losing ground to competitors or alienating fighters, yet moving too quickly threatens to deplete essential resources and trigger internal fragmentation.

In the current geopolitical climate of West Africa—defined by the emergence of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), its departure from CEDEAO, and ongoing regional friction—grasping the internal mechanics of JNIM is vital. Such understanding is necessary for developing robust security frameworks in nations concerned by the spread of armed jihadist movements. For those following Mali politics english updates, these shifts represent a critical turning point for regional stability.

Event details

  • Date: February 24, 2026, from 6:00 PM to 7:30 PM
  • Location: Room K011, 1 pl. Saint-Thomas-d’Aquin, 75007, Paris
  • Organizers: CERI, Africa Programme

Featured speakers

Jean-Hervé Jézéquel (International Crisis Group)
As the Sahel Project Director for the International Crisis Group, Jézéquel conducts extensive field research on political and security dynamics in the Sahel. He earned his doctorate from the École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) in 2002.

Discussants

Marte Beldé (Sciences Po Bordeaux)
A postdoctoral researcher involved in the GOVJIHAD project, Beldé focuses on the political economy and spatial reach of jihadist groups in West Africa. Her 2025 doctoral thesis from Ghent University examined Salafi-jihadi expansion in Sikasso, Mali.

Beatriz de León Cobo (GEMASS – Sorbonne Université)
A doctoral candidate specializing in radicalization, she is also an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) in London and leads the Europe-Sahel Dialogue Forum at the Francisco de Vitoria University in Madrid.

Moderator: Dan Sanaren (CERI–Sciences Po / CNRS)