Driving out french troops and cutting ties with the west was supposed to usher in a “second independence” for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Four years after the first coups, populist rhetoric is crashing into a grim reality: dependency has simply changed hands, insecurity is skyrocketing, and economies are gasping for air.
The security mirage: russian partnership backfires
The military regimes’ main justification for their coups was France’s failure to eradicate jihadism. Yet the chosen remedy turns out worse than the disease. By replacing western forces with russian paramilitaries from Africa Corps (formerly Wagner), Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey opted for a scorched-earth strategy.
On the ground, terrorist groups (JNIM and EIGS) are more powerful than ever. They now encircle strategic cities and cut vital supply routes. Even more alarming, the human cost is terrifying. Reports from independent organisations highlight a surge in abuses against civilians during joint operations. Far from being protected, the people of the Sahel are caught between jihadist terror and the brutality of new security auxiliaries, while the number of internally displaced people hits historic highs.
Diplomatic isolation: institutional flight forward
To mask domestic failures, AES leaders have chosen a policy of permanent rupture. Their noisy withdrawal from ECOWAS deprived the three countries of natural economic partners. More recently, their collective exit from the International Criminal Court (ICC) and restrictions on UN agencies are turning the region into a diplomatic grey zone.
This institutional flight forward mainly serves to shield the regimes from any external scrutiny of human rights or progress on democratic transition timelines. Promised elections to return power to civilians are systematically postponed indefinitely, turning what were meant to be temporary transitions into entrenched military dictatorships.
Economy in distress and social regression
On the economic front, the balance is equally heavy. The rhetoric of monetary sovereignty and self-sufficiency collides with the hard reality of numbers. Regional isolation has caused a dizzying rise in the cost of living and basic necessities. Local businesses are stifled by indirect sanctions, falling foreign investment, and chronic power cuts that paralyse Bamako and Ouagadougou.
While national budgets are bled dry to fund the war effort and pay russian mercenaries (often compensated through mining concessions), basic social services are collapsing. Thousands of schools remain closed, and the health system is drained. Instead of investing in human development, national resources are seized by military apparatuses.
A change of masters, not liberation
Four years after the great divorce from Paris, the verdict is bitter. The Sahel is neither safer, nor more prosperous, nor more independent. By ousting an imperfect but predictable western partner, AES leaders have thrown their countries into the arms of an opportunistic russian power whose only goal is geopolitical gain. The promised “second independence” has turned into a tragic economic and security regression, where sovereignty proclaimed at the top is merely a smokescreen for the asphyxiation of the people at the bottom.