Côte d’Ivoire’s promising start to its cocoa export season, with an impressive 1 million tonnes already secured through contracts for the 2026-27 harvest, could be significantly hampered by the impending El Niño weather phenomenon. Expected to manifest in July, this climatic event is a major concern for professionals across the cocoa sector and agricultural commodity traders. Furthermore, to manage stock levels, the Conseil du Café et du Cacao (CCC), headquartered in Abidjan, has adjusted its premium on additional sales, raising it from zero to 135 dollars per tonne above the futures price, according to insights from market participants.
These strategic moves by the world’s leading cocoa producer underscore a resurgence in demand and anticipate a market tightening as the new season commences on September 1st. “We have already secured between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes for the upcoming campaign, yet we have opted to moderate our pace and exercise caution,” revealed an insider from the Conseil du Café et du Cacao.
Cocoa trading entities project export volumes ranging from 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes. They also justify the increased premium demanded by the Conseil du Café et du Cacao, noting that “the current market conditions allow them to adopt a more assertive stance. The Conseil does not need to reduce the premium to secure contracts,” explained a senior executive at a cocoa trading firm.
However, this positive momentum in the international market might be curtailed by the El Niño event. Its potential to induce drought conditions in key cocoa-producing nations, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, poses a substantial risk to overall production.
Many exporters have identified the greatest risk for 2027 not as El Niño, but rather as inadequate plantation upkeep and the escalating costs of fertilizers. A significant number of Ivorian farms are aging and increasingly susceptible to various diseases. “I do not perceive El Niño as the primary threat to production. The real issue lies in the scarcity of fertilizers and phytosanitary products,” asserted the director of an Abidjan-based export company.