Senegal’s political landscape has seen rapid developments following President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s decision on May 22 to dismiss Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko. This significant rupture was long anticipated, stemming from escalating political tensions and increasingly public disagreements between these two key figures at the helm of the executive in the Land of Teranga.
Concurrently, Malick Ndiaye, who served as President of the National Assembly, announced his resignation from the parliamentary leadership. This move, however, does not signify his departure from the legislative body. The scenario appears to be a calculated maneuver designed to create an opening for the former Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko, who has expressed his intention to rejoin the National Assembly and resume his mandate as a deputy.
The political split appears definitive
The Parliament is scheduled to convene in an extraordinary session this May 26 to address this matter and elect its new president. All indications suggest that, barring an unforeseen major upset, Ousmane Sonko, the former mayor of Ziguinchor who was removed from the Prime Minister’s office under well-known circumstances, is poised to assume the leadership of the Parliament. This strategic position would enable him to continue his power dynamic with President Bassirou Diomaye Faye.
A crucial question now emerges: how far will this intensifying rivalry between the two former allies extend? This query gains particular relevance considering that beyond the former National Assembly President’s resignation, which appears to be an act of loyalty toward Sonko, Ousmane Sonko is expected to face little difficulty in securing the Speaker’s position if he desires it. The National Assembly is overwhelmingly dominated by Pastef (Patriotes africains du Sénégal pour le travail, l’éthique et la fraternité), the ruling party, which Sonko still spearheads. Pastef commands a substantial majority, holding no less than 130 out of the 165 seats in Parliament.
This highlights the immense significance of this Tuesday’s session, which could pave the way for the former Prime Minister to remain a central figure in Senegal’s political arena and within the highest echelons of state decision-making by becoming the head of Parliament. This is a highly strategic role, especially within the current context where the rift between the Thiès native and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye seems complete. President Faye appears driven by a desire to emerge from the shadow of his former mentor and assert his own authority.
Ousmane Sonko’s potential for legislative obstruction
Nevertheless, in this clash of ambitions between former comrades who have reached the pinnacle of state power, Senegal faces the risk of an institutional crisis. This is particularly true if, as the scenario suggests, Ousmane Sonko is elected President of the National Assembly at the conclusion of the May 26 session. Such an outcome would elevate him to the second most powerful figure in the state and the constitutional successor to the President.
From this vantage point, Sonko could at any moment leverage the legislative power he controls to impede government actions. Predicting the full extent of this rivalry between the two leaders of the ruling party is challenging. Indeed, if they are not cautious, this situation risks negatively impacting the party’s internal cohesion. With these two influential figures in open conflict, one might question whether Pastef is prematurely undermining its own strength.
It is evident that since their ascent to power, Ousmane Sonko has harbored ambitions to assume the presidency, having propelled Bassirou Diomaye Faye into the role under circumstances where Sonko himself was ineligible for the 2024 presidential election due to a May 2023 conviction. He appears to have intended to be the true power behind the throne.
All indications suggest that by entering into open conflict with the head of state today, he not only refuses to remain in Faye’s shadow but also firmly believes he possesses sufficient leverage to pursue his presidential aspirations, overcoming the judicial obstacle that prevented his candidacy in 2024.
A delicate balance of power
This ambition is further fueled by the new Electoral Code, which was swiftly adopted on May 12. This revision aimed to clarify cases of ineligibility and prevent candidates from being disqualified for political reasons, though some opposition voices perceived it as a means to facilitate the candidacies of both Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye.
While Sonko, a staunch opponent of former President Macky Sall, maintains significant popularity within the party he founded, his eligibility for the next presidential election, scheduled for March 2029, will likely remain a contentious issue until the Constitutional Council issues a definitive ruling.
Ultimately, if this rivalry between the two prominent personalities at the state’s highest level continues to intensify, it could create a precarious