The long-anticipated political divergence between President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko has now become a reality in Senegal. Following his dismissal by President Faye, Sonko has strategically repositioned himself within the National Assembly.
Sonko, perhaps with a touch more foresight, might have recognized the National Assembly as his ideal refuge from the outset, a place to bide his time until 2029. This was particularly true after his party, Pastef, secured a landslide victory in the November 2024 legislative elections.
It appears Sonko believed that the most effective way to ensure Diomaye Faye wouldn’t grow too comfortable in the presidential chair was to keep him under close scrutiny. He aimed to directly manage executive powers alongside Faye, who, at least initially, seemed content to play a more symbolic role, akin to a constitutional monarch. However, as Machiavelli once warned, power transforms, and he who empowers another risks his own downfall.
The inevitable clash unfolds
Senegal’s presidential system inherently centralizes power, leaving little room for any figure outside the Head of State. Even an exceptionally strong Prime Minister remains merely a primus inter pares, nothing more.
Sonko soon found himself constrained within the government. A pivotal moment arrived on July 1, 2025, when the Supreme Court declined to annul the ruling that rendered him ineligible for the 2029 elections. From that point, Sonko’s political prospects visibly dimmed. Compounding this, he perceived a lack of concern from Diomaye Faye regarding his mounting challenges. The political strategist within Sonko, never truly dormant, then asserted itself. As institutional avenues progressively closed off, he chose to re-engage through popular mobilization, occasionally testing political red lines, notably surrounding the circumstances of his reintegration into the National Assembly. This legislative body now serves as his stronghold, fortified by numerical superiority, seemingly without fear of accusations of misconduct from Senegal’s sparse opposition. Presently, only Diomaye Faye possesses the authority to consult the Constitutional Council on the legality of Sonko’s return to the Assembly, a step he has, for now, opted against taking.
Diomaye Faye’s calculated inaction
In the land of Lat Dior Diop, the revered 19th-century king of Cayor and a hero of the anti-colonial struggle, political affairs are rarely straightforward. Merely citing constitutional articles and subsequent laws offers little insight into the intricate game currently unfolding. There are two key players and a singular objective, echoing Senegal’s national motto. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, the shrewd tactician, and Ousmane Sonko, the formidable “Djambar” (hurricane), are these actors. Their ultimate goal is the 2029 presidential election.
The two leaders wield distinct advantages: President Diomaye Faye commands the state institutions and the legal framework. Ousmane Sonko, on the other hand, relies on the unwavering strength of his determined partisans within a well-organized party, and his willingness to challenge established norms without hesitation.
Leveraging their respective strengths
Ousmane Sonko, by securing the National Assembly, undeniably holds a powerful position. Yet, its utility is complicated by several factors: the controversial means of its acquisition, the looming threat of dissolution, and crucially, the potential charge of forfeiture should the Constitutional Council deem his re-entry as a deputy illegal.
Diomaye Faye, for his part, appears to be exercising patience. Now unburdened by the presence of Sonko, he is working with his new Prime Minister, Ahmadou Al Aminou Lô, to stabilize economic affairs in collaboration with international financial institutions. Faye understands that a confrontation is inevitable, and he is reportedly preparing for it with a strong circle of advisors.