Mali’s security landscape is experiencing rapid and concerning deterioration. Coordinated offensives by jihadist groups, coupled with separatist movements in the country’s north, have subjected the Malian state to immense strategic pressure from multiple fronts. Yet, beneath this visible reality, a more profound evolution is unfolding. Less dramatic than the armed clashes, this shift is infinitely more decisive: the conflict’s center of gravity is moving. What is currently at stake in Mali extends far beyond a mere military confrontation.
For over a decade, the Malian crisis has been viewed primarily through a security lens. National forces, supported by various international partners, engaged in a strategy focused on stabilization through military might. While this approach managed to contain certain dynamics in the short term, it ultimately failed to produce the anticipated structural effects.
A political void now occupied by armed groups
Instead, this security-first approach fostered a strategic illusion: that restoring security would automatically precede the state’s return. However, Mali’s experience now demonstrates the opposite. A state can maintain military projection capabilities while progressively losing political, social, and symbolic control over its territory.
Across numerous areas in central and northern Mali, the reality of power has undergone a significant transformation. The state did not simply withdraw; it was replaced. Armed groups, both jihadist and non-jihadist, have gradually established alternative forms of authority. To varying degrees, they now fulfill essential functions: local security, conflict resolution, economic regulation, and social oversight.
This recomposition of power isn’t solely based on coercion. It also emerges from a growing disconnect between the central state and segments of the population. In these regions, the absence of public services, weak administrative links, and the perception of a distant authority have created a vacuum that other actors have skillfully filled. In politics, a void never truly exists; it is always occupied.
The decisive battle: legitimacy
The Malian crisis has now entered a phase where the military dimension, though indispensable, is no longer sufficient. The true struggle lies elsewhere: in the capacity to generate legitimacy.
Who genuinely protects the populace? Who delivers justice perceived as equitable? Who embodies credible and predictable authority? These questions now shape local choices. In this context, military superiority no longer guarantees victory. It can even prove to be without lasting effect if not accompanied by a political and social reconquest.
Rethinking the strategy for Mali’s future
Escaping the current impasse necessitates a paradigm shift. The objective is no longer merely to reclaim positions or neutralize armed groups. It is about rebuilding a state presence capable of establishing itself durably within these territories. This demands an integrated approach, closely linking security, political, and social dimensions. The state must become visible once again, not solely through its force, but through its utility to the people.
This requires:
- the effective restoration of sovereign functions as close to the populations as possible;
- reinvestment in territories through credible administrative and social mechanisms;
- the reconstruction of local chains of trust;
- the capacity to regain the initiative in shaping perceptions and narratives.
In essence, it’s not just about re-establishing state authority, but about making it legitimate once more.
Mali is not an isolated case. In many respects, it serves as a laboratory for the contemporary transformations of conflicts across the Sahel. In this region, competition among actors is no longer confined to military confrontation. It is part of a broader struggle for societal organization, territorial control, and influence over populations. This shift compels us to rethink traditional categories of warfare and stabilization. Power is no longer measured solely by the capacity for coercion, but by the ability to structure an accepted order.
An equation still open for Mali’s state legitimacy
The Malian crisis has entered a phase where the decisive question is no longer solely about territorial control, but about reconstructing the political and social authority of the state. The real battle is no longer fought exclusively on front lines. It is waged in the capacity to regain legitimacy, utility, and acceptance by the populations. For in the Sahel, no territory remains empty for long. When a state recedes, other actors take its place. However, the durable stabilization of Mali also hinges on the gradual return of the political dimension to the national arena.
This prospect remains particularly complex within a context marked by the weakening of political parties, the marginalization or exile of many civilian figures, and the predominance of security-focused logics. The central question, therefore, is no longer simply how to regain territorial control, but under what conditions a credible political space can be recreated to support the reconstruction of the state and restore a shared legitimacy.