The 2024 General Population and Housing Census (RGPH) has highlighted profound demographic changes reshaping Morocco’s social landscape. Rapid urban expansion in peripheral areas, coupled with the decline of historic city centers and relative stagnation in rural regions, has dramatically altered population distribution over the past decade.

These shifts raise critical questions about Morocco’s electoral map ahead of the 2026 legislative elections: does the current system ensure equitable representation for all citizens? A detailed analysis of demographic data alongside the electoral map reveals significant disparities in how votes translate into parliamentary representation across different constituencies.

Extreme disparities: how one vote can hold vastly different weight

The electoral map, which calculates the number of eligible voters per parliamentary seat, exposes glaring inequities. Morocco’s electoral system operates on two key principles:

• Demographic proportionality: allocating seats based on population size
• Territorial equity: ensuring a minimum of two seats per province to prevent marginalization of less densely populated or remote regions

While the second principle prevents complete disenfranchisement, it creates stark contrasts in voting power. In sparsely populated southern provinces, the ratio of eligible voters per seat is astonishingly low:

• Aousserd: 2,992 eligible voters per seat
• Tarfaya: 5,368 voters per seat
• Assa-Zag: 10,178 voters per seat
• Es-Semara: 19,712 voters per seat
• Boujdour: 20,185 voters per seat

Conversely, major urban centers and their peripheries face the opposite challenge, with ratios exceeding 150,000 eligible voters per seat:

• Tanger-Assilah: 213,980 voters per seat
• Ménara (Marrakech): 176,256 voters per seat
• Sidi Bernoussi (Casablanca): 174,501 voters per seat
• Nouaceur (Casablanca periphery): 155,172 voters per seat
• Inezgane-Aït Melloul: 151,978 voters per seat

A vote cast in Aousserd or Tarfaya carries far greater weight in determining a deputy than one cast in Tangier or Marrakech.

Urban-rural divide: the shifting geography of Morocco’s population

The 2024 census confirms Morocco’s accelerating urbanization. With a total population of 36.8 million, urban residents now number 23.1 million—an increase of nearly 2.7 million over a decade—while the rural population has grown by just 302,419 to reach 13.7 million. Notably, 71.2% of Morocco’s population now resides in just five regions: Greater Casablanca-Settat, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, Marrakech-Safi, Fès-Meknès, and Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma.

One of the most striking trends is the exodus from historic city centers to peripheral communes. Casablanca-Anfa, for instance, lost nearly a quarter of its population in a decade, dropping from 453,000 to 332,000 residents. Despite this decline, it retains its four parliamentary seats, resulting in a ratio of 68,707 eligible voters per seat.

Meanwhile, the peripheral province of Nouaceur saw its population double to 665,000 residents over the same period. With only three seats allocated, its ratio stands at 155,172 eligible voters per seat.

If the current electoral map remains unchanged for 2026, this imbalance will intensify within metropolitan areas. Similar disparities appear in Rabat, where urban districts like Rabat-Océan and Rabat-Chellah have ratios of 55,856 and 59,598 voters per seat respectively, compared to the rapidly growing Skhirat-Témara periphery at 141,832 voters per seat.

Political implications: the high stakes of redistricting

Adjusting the electoral map to align with 2024 census data presents complex political challenges for parties preparing for the 2026 elections. If the Interior Ministry opts to rebalance seats without increasing the total number of deputies in the Chamber of Representatives, it may need to reallocate seats from declining urban areas like Anfa or Rabat city center to expanding peripheries such as Nouaceur or Skhirat-Témara.

Reducing the number of seats in a constituency intensifies electoral competition. Fewer seats favor established parties with substantial financial resources and strong mobilization networks—such as the current coalition partners RNI, PAM, and Istiqlal—while increasing the threshold for smaller parties to gain representation through the “highest remainder” mechanism.

The rural anchor: participation distortions in a changing electorate

Despite urbanization, a significant portion of the urban electorate remains registered—and votes—in their rural hometowns to maintain local influence. This explains the traditionally high turnout in rural areas, sometimes exceeding 90% of registered voters, compared to the high abstention rates in major cities, where participation can drop below 30% in certain middle-class constituencies.

This transition period underscores the dual importance of ongoing voter registration campaigns: registering new voters while updating records for those who have relocated from city centers to growing peripheries. These efforts also aim to correct registration errors and enhance the overall reliability of electoral rolls ahead of the September 23, 2026 legislative elections.

Strategic challenges for the 2026 elections: the urban middle class and turnout

The demographic data presents strategic hurdles for the upcoming vote. Several key factors will shape the electoral landscape:

• Mobilizing the urban middle class: squeezed by inflation and feeling excluded from recent targeted social assistance reforms, this demographic largely abstained in 2021. Their potential return to the polls in 2026—whether through protest voting or support for alternative platforms—could significantly alter current political balances.
• Political positioning: while majority parties must defend their economic and social performance in a post-inflation context, opposition groups like the PJD may seek to capitalize on urban dissatisfaction and rekindle support among disillusioned local activists.

Ultimately, aligning the 2024 census data with territorial equity will require precise navigation from policymakers. Though no official announcement on electoral redistricting has been made, the publication of new population figures has set the stage for an inevitable technical and political debate ahead of the 2026 elections.