The nations of the Sahel belt, a geographical expanse stretching from Mali to Chad, do not, at first glance, present the economic profile of a burgeoning new Eldorado. To put it plainly, this is no Singapore for foreign direct investment. Key economic indicators for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger consistently show significant challenges. In Mali, for instance, nearly half (47%) of its 25.9 million inhabitants are under 15 years old, and only 25% of its land is arable. The country ranks 188th out of 193 in the UN Development Programme’s Human Development Index, with approximately 45% of its population living below the poverty line. Ouagadougou and Niamey report similar disheartening statistics, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations, respectively, living in poverty, according to the World Bank. These three landlocked countries are currently governed by military leaders who have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a bloc seemingly endorsed by the Kremlin to undermine remaining French influence. Their declared anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic stance was purportedly intended to bring prosperity to their citizens, a prosperity they claimed was withheld by Europeans, but this has not materialized. Nevertheless, two neighboring powers are now extending their services: Algeria and Morocco.
Morocco: an atlantic gateway
Through the ambitious construction of the Dakhla Atlantic port, the Kingdom of Morocco is developing a facility in the Western Sahara designed to rival the strategic importance of Tanger Med as a European hub. Expected to be completed by 2028 and operational the following year, this infrastructure project is envisioned as a vital entry point for West Africa and a crucial conduit to the Americas. Rabat has already hosted the three leaders of the AES, presenting a sharp geopolitical offer: a deep-water port, potentially linked by a railway line (though not yet finalized), that would provide these three landlocked nations with direct access to the Atlantic Ocean, thereby boosting their economies. For Morocco, which faces geographical isolation due to its long-standing conflict with Algeria, this initiative serves multiple purposes. It aims to demonstrate that its development plan for the Western Sahara will benefit the entire sub-region, and that economic growth can indirectly combat the jihadist groups plaguing the Sahel by offering hope to a desperate youth population. The Sahel region is experiencing rapid population growth, with projections indicating its population will double within a decade.
Algeria: a trans-saharan gas pipeline to europe
Algeria, which had experienced strained relations with Niger, reconciled diplomatically in mid-February with Abderrahmane Tiani, the head of Niger’s military government. Algeria proposed to commence construction on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment “as soon as Ramadan ends.” This pipeline, originating in Nigeria, is now planned to traverse Niger before reaching Algeria, ultimately supplying natural gas to Europe. The 4800-kilometer project will see Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbon company, manage construction on Nigerien soil and provide training to Nigerien personnel for its operation. This commitment to local capacity building stands in contrast to approaches often seen from other foreign investors, such as China, who typically do not prioritize training local populations in the management of their national resources.
two complementary yet clashing strategies
Discussions concerning Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Western Sahara commenced in Madrid and Washington on February 23rd and 24th. Should this conflict, now in its fiftieth year, finally reach a resolution, Algeria and Morocco could potentially collaborate on the explosive security and demographic challenges facing the Sahel. Such cooperation would prevent the AES states from exploiting the existing rivalries between the two regional capitals. Jihadism thrives on the combined scourges of poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algiers and Rabat are independently seeking to disrupt this destructive cycle. Each nation leverages its unique strengths: Algeria offers its hydrocarbon resources and Sonatrach’s technical expertise, while Rabat promotes its grand infrastructure projects and its ambition to serve as a hub connecting Africa, the Americas, and Europe. These two strategies, though inherently complementary in their goals for regional stability and development, are unfortunately at odds due to the unresolved Sahrawi conflict, a regrettable situation.
*In a past instance, on September 26, 2025, Mali’s Prime Minister, Abdoulaye Maïga, publicly demanded that Algeria “cease supporting international terrorism.” In response, Algeria’s Foreign Minister, Ahmed Attaf, denounced this as a “rant of a ruffian.”