Gabon’s public debt is projected to reach an estimated $15 billion by 2025, marking an unprecedented high for an economy within the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC). This substantial figure, disclosed following a period characterized by significant cash flow pressures and an increasing reliance on regional financial markets, confirms an upward trajectory observed over several years. Libreville now faces the imperative of making increasingly constrained budgetary decisions, especially as oil revenues continue to be the primary determinant of the nation’s fiscal stability.
A trajectory of indebtedness raising sustainability questions
When measured against the national wealth, Gabon’s financial obligations are now nearing the CEMAC community threshold of 70% of its gross domestic product. Despite being the fifth-largest economy in the sub-region, Gabon had previously established a reputation for prudent management of its macroeconomic indicators throughout the 2000s. However, this situation dramatically reversed due to the combined effects of the 2014 crude oil price collapse, the global health crisis, and the subsequent expansion of domestic debt servicing held by local banks and on the public securities market of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC).
The current debt stock is comprised of a predominantly external component, notably linked to eurobonds issued between 2013 and 2020, alongside a steadily growing domestic debt. Repeated issuances of Treasury bills and bonds on the sub-regional market have enabled the country to manage its monthly finances, but at the cost of interest rates that burden the operational budget. Essentially, each new borrowing operation increases the average cost of the overall debt portfolio.
The delicate fiscal balancing act of the Oligui Nguema transition
Since assuming power in August 2023, General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema has positioned the restoration of fiscal equilibrium as a central tenet of his economic agenda. The Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions (CTRI) has announced several debt audits, specifically targeting internal payments owed to state suppliers and local authorities. The objective is to identify disputed claims and reschedule legitimate ones, thereby freeing up crucial cash for public investment initiatives.
Nevertheless, this exercise remains constrained by the existing repayment schedule. Gabon is obligated to honor several upcoming eurobond maturities in the coming years, including a dollar-denominated bond that is nearing maturity, presenting a significant refinancing challenge. Libreville tested the international market in 2024 with a liability management operation partially linked to a debt-for-nature swap mechanism, though this did not fully resolve the underlying financial equation. Ultimately, regaining credibility with investors hinges on achieving clarity regarding the finance law and resuming formal dialogue with the International Monetary Fund (FMI).
Oil, manganese, and wood: key revenue drivers
Gabon’s capacity to manage this substantial financial burden is intricately linked to the performance of its export sectors. Oil remains the cornerstone of budgetary revenues, with production fluctuating around 200,000 barrels per day, albeit experiencing a slight structural decline. Manganese, where Libreville stands as a leading global producer through the Compagnie minière de l’Ogooué (Comilog), a subsidiary of the French group Eramet, contributes an increasing share, driven by robust Asian demand. The processed wood sector, anchored by the Nkok special economic zone, completes this vital economic triad.
Furthermore, authorities are banking on accelerating road and energy infrastructure projects to bolster non-oil growth. The Transgabonaise, a flagship construction project, alongside several hydroelectric partnerships, are expected to drive economic activity beyond 3% annually—a necessary condition for stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio. Without this revitalization, Gabon risks further deterioration of its sovereign rating, following multiple downgrades by international agencies in recent years.
The budgetary roadmap presented for 2026 must therefore meticulously balance spending discipline, the mobilization of non-tax revenues, and targeted renegotiation of the existing debt stock. This represents a demanding but crucial equilibrium for maintaining the nation’s credibility in both regional and international markets.