During a recent Space live discussion hosted by Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, political analyst Christian Moleka offered a comprehensive evaluation of the military and diplomatic strategies deployed by Kinshasa in response to the ongoing conflict in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Moleka stated that despite a substantial budget of 4.5 billion dollars allocated between 2022 and 2025 under the military programming law, the on-the-ground outcomes have regrettably “fallen short of expectations.” He pointed out that the FARDC (Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo) have consistently failed to regain the upper hand against the AFC/M23 rebels since the capture of Bunagana in 2022.
Regarding the diplomatic front, the analyst acknowledged several notable achievements. These include the imposition of European sanctions against Rwanda, a discernible shift in Washington’s understanding of the conflict, and the unanimous adoption of a resolution by the United Nations Security Council. However, Moleka highlighted a persistent disparity between these diplomatic triumphs and the harsh realities faced on the battlefield. He cited a report from the UN Group of Experts, which indicated that the M23 had expanded its occupied territory by an additional 35% since the Doha agreements. “These are tools that have yielded only partial, temporary results,” he summarized.
When pressed to identify the primary factor contributing to this mixed outcome, Christian Moleka’s response was unequivocal: “I would say it lies predominantly with the military aspect.” He drew an analogy between diplomacy and military engagement, likening them to a two-person dance. “One cannot maintain a strong diplomatic posture without a robust military component to support it,” he explained. According to the analyst, the international progress secured by Kinshasa risks being undermined and ultimately turning against the DRC if it is not reinforced by a more favorable military balance of power.
Moleka concluded his analysis by contextualizing the conflict within a broader historical framework, describing it as a “war of attrition” that has spanned three decades. In such a conflict, he argued, “it is not the intensity that matters, but the capacity to endure for a long time” – a formidable challenge that, in his view, confronts both Congolese diplomacy and its armed forces.