Cameroon is currently preparing for one of its most significant external financing operations since the January 2026 eurobond. According to the monthly public debt situation report for June 2026, issued by the Caisse Autonome d’Amortissement (CAA), the state intends to raise $690 million, approximately 400 billion FCFA, through an ESG-component loan targeting international investors. This venture, however, unfolds within a political climate that could sway market perceptions, notably the extended public absence of President Paul Biya – a factor international investors traditionally incorporate into their sovereign risk assessments.
The head of state has not been seen publicly since June 7, 2026, when authorities announced his departure for a “brief private stay” in Switzerland. By July 30, his absence marked the longest period he had been out of public view since assuming power in 1982. This prolonged disappearance has fueled speculation within Cameroon regarding President Biya’s well-being.
Government officials continue to refute these rumors. The Minister of Communication, René Emmanuel Sadi, maintains that “the president is in good health and is working from Geneva, where he currently resides. Information suggesting otherwise is pure fantasy and malicious manipulation aimed at destabilizing public opinion.”
Despite these assurances, questions persist. Several opposition leaders have called for greater transparency concerning the president’s situation, suggesting an institutional void. For international investors, these discussions primarily heighten political risk assessment, a crucial criterion evaluated alongside macroeconomic fundamentals and budgetary indicators.
Rating agencies closely monitor political risk
Analyses from credit rating agencies reveal that this issue is not a recent development. In its November 15, 2024, report, Fitch Ratings noted that “political instability will be a major factor influencing Cameroon’s sovereign rating. President Paul Biya’s age, his longevity in power since 1982, and the absence of a succession plan exacerbate the risk of a disorderly power transition.” The agency had then maintained a ‘B’ rating with a negative outlook.
On May 9, 2025, Fitch reaffirmed this rating, citing “growing political tensions ahead of elections,” persistent fragilities in fiscal governance, and ongoing shortcomings in public finance management. Moody’s presented a similar analysis in February 2024, stating that “political destabilization risks linked to the absence of a credible presidential succession plan” justified maintaining a ‘Caa’ rating, while cautioning that “a chaotic transition could lead to delays in debt payments.”
Standard & Poor’s also highlighted this vulnerability in its March 21, 2025, analysis. The agency recalled that “Cameroon has been led since 1982 by President Paul Biya, who, at 92, is expected to seek an eighth term in the October 2025 presidential election,” adding that the concentration of power and the lack of a historical precedent for presidential transition sustained a high level of uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the constitutional reform of April 2026 led Fitch to partially revise its assessment. In its latest evaluation, the agency believes that “the risk of a disorderly power transition in Cameroon has diminished, though not disappeared, following the April 2026 constitutional reform that created the position of vice-president. However, the identity of the occupant of this office remains unknown, and risks persist given a fragmented sociopolitical environment.”
Markets have already demonstrated their sensitivity to such signals. In early October 2024, rumors of Paul Biya’s passing triggered a downturn in Cameroon’s dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. These securities reportedly experienced a third consecutive session of decline “due to uncertainty regarding President Biya’s health.”
Market observers noted that President Biya has consolidated significant power, and a succession crisis could provoke substantial market volatility. Analysts also suggested that political uncertainty might challenge the country’s ability to maintain its fiscal policy and honor commitments to international creditors.
Strengths to reassure investors
The political context, however, represents only one of many criteria considered by international investors. Growth prospects, the public debt trajectory, the quality of the sovereign signature, and credit enhancement mechanisms designed to secure the operation also play a decisive role in their assessment.
To enhance the risk profile of this issuance and boost its attractiveness, Cameroon is relying on several international partners. The operation is structured with the support of Matha Capital, acting as financial advisor; the African Development Bank (AfDB); the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATIDI), a multilateral institution specializing in covering trade and investment risks; and the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), a pan-African financial institution focused on infrastructure financing. The involvement of these partners aims to reinforce the issuance’s credibility among investors, particularly those specializing in sustainable finance.
Robust economic fundamentals also present favorable arguments. In its latest rating, Fitch forecasts average growth of 3.7% in 2026 and 2027, anticipates a reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 40.2% by 2027, and highlights Cameroon’s successful mobilization of $750 million on international markets in January 2026 through a widely subscribed eurobond.
The agency nonetheless emphasizes that investors will continue to evaluate several factors, including governance evolution, public finance management, arrears clearance, the conclusion of a new program with the International Monetary Fund, and the political climate. A few months ahead of this new international issuance, Paul Biya’s prolonged absence thus introduces an additional element likely to influence Cameroon’s sovereign risk perception. While not, by itself, undermining the country’s capacity to raise funds on international markets, it could impact the conditions under which investors agree to finance this operation.
Perton Biyiha
The Editorial Team