Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has reaffirmed Cameroon‘s sovereign rating at “B-/B” with a stable outlook — a verdict that, beneath its reassuring surface, thrusts the political transition in Yaoundé to the centre of market concerns. The decision, made public in mid-September, lands at a pivotal moment when the presidential succession, long treated as taboo, has become a central variable in assessing country risk. For investors and multilateral partners alike, the rating’s reaffirmation reads less as a clean bill of health than as a cautionary signal.

What the reaffirmation really signals

By holding the “B-/B” line, S&P endorses the fiscal path Yaoundé has followed under its programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while underscoring the structural fragility of Cameroon’s economy. The rating remains deep in speculative territory, five notches below investment grade, reflecting a repayment capacity seen as vulnerable to shocks. The agency’s analysts highlight public debt that continues to weigh on revenues, alongside budget execution disrupted by volatile hydrocarbon prices.

Behind the outward stability, S&P stresses political uncertainties that could derail the trajectory. The country is entering a sensitive electoral sequence, with the presidential vote set to determine whether the regime in place for more than four decades extends its longevity. This context weighs on the risk premium demanded by markets, in a regional environment already marked by Sahelian turbulence and tighter financing conditions for African issuers.

Political succession as the new risk premium

It is the question of transition at the top of state that crystallises attention. The US agency considers that the outcome of the vote — and, more broadly, the management of the post-Biya era — will shape the country’s macroeconomic stability in the coming years. A controlled institutional handover would preserve relations with donors, starting with the IMF, whose programme anchors structural reforms. Conversely, any political deadlock, post-electoral contestation or poorly prepared vacancy would expose Yaoundé to abrupt capital flight and a downgrade of its signature.

Cameroon, the largest economy in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), plays the role of regional anchor. Its signature directly influences financing conditions for other issuers in the franc zone, from Gabon to the Republic of Congo. A Cameroonian sovereign downgrade would therefore have immediate contagion effects on the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) and on shared foreign exchange reserves, already strained by member countries’ external refinancing needs.

Budget reforms and lingering vulnerabilities

On the macroeconomic front, S&P acknowledges efforts to rationalise fuel subsidies, broaden the tax base and contain the wage bill. These measures, required under the letter of intent signed with the IMF, have helped stabilise the budget deficit at levels deemed sustainable. Yet non-oil revenue mobilisation remains weak, at around 12 to 13 per cent of gross domestic product — a ratio well below the standards of comparable economies.

Dependence on hydrocarbons also continues to weaken external balances. Cameroonian oil production is structurally declining, eroding export receipts at a time when import needs, particularly for food and energy, remain high. External debt servicing, estimated at several hundred billion CFA francs a year, absorbs a growing share of public resources, limiting fiscal room for long-term investment.

Technical and financial partners are also monitoring the effective implementation of IMF recommendations on state-owned enterprise governance, particularly in hydrocarbons and electricity. The National Hydrocarbons Corporation (SNH) and Camair-Co are among the entities whose restructuring conditions the credibility of the fiscal trajectory announced through 2027.

A message to investors and donors

For asset managers exposed to African debt, S&P’s message is twofold. The rating’s stability opens the door to new eurobond issues or private placements, if market conditions allow. But the explicit mention of political risk invites caution, just weeks before a deadline whose outcome will redraw the geography of power in the sub-region. Western diplomats and Gulf capitals, now highly active in financing African infrastructure, are watching with equal attention.

The agency has expressly tied the stability of its outlook to the authorities’ ability to ensure an orderly transition — a sine qua non for maintaining access to international capital markets.

Further reading

Ecobank Cameroun posts 22.5 billion CFA francs in profit through end-August · BCEAO denies fake video targeting governor Jean-Claude Brou · BEAC pushes to revive IMF programmes in CEMAC

By Yacouba Ouédraogo — Investigative journalist