In Mali, the blockade enforced by the Jnim, a jihadist group aligned with al-Qaïda, has escalated into a critical phase. Over the weekend, at least a dozen buses were set ablaze along the Ségou-Bamako corridor, a vital supply route for the capital originating from eastern Mali. Concurrently, electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region was deliberately targeted and destroyed. While Malian armed forces continue operations across multiple fronts, they have yet to break the economic stranglehold gripping the nation.
Manantali dam: a strategic target in a war of attrition
The assault on Manantali’s facilities is far from incidental. The dam, co-managed by Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal under the Organisation pour la mise en valeur du fleuve Sénégal (OMVS), serves as a backbone of Mali’s power grid. By sabotaging its evacuation lines, the Jnim is no longer merely attacking security forces—it is striking at the heart of urban economic activity, where power outages paralyze public services, businesses, and industries in real time.
This tactic is part of a broader campaign unfolding over recent weeks, characterized by systematic targeting of fuel convoys entering from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists aim to weaponize fuel shortages, betting on eroding public confidence in the interim government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once relatively insulated from the worst effects, now finds itself at the center of an unprecedented battle of exhaustion.
Army’s countermeasures and fragile supply respite
The Malian military reports sustained ground and air operations across several regions. Military escorts have facilitated the entry of hundreds of fuel tankers into Bamako in recent days, temporarily easing pressure on gas stations under siege. Yet this logistical relief remains precarious: each convoy demands substantial resources, and the long-term security of national highways appears unattainable in the short term.
The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) face a dual challenge. In western and central Mali, the Jnim has intensified ambushes and infrastructure attacks. Further north, in the Kidal region, tensions remain frozen in a tense stalemate, with new clashes likely as the Permanent Strategic Framework rebel alliance regroups. Bamako’s government is thus navigating two distinct fronts, with dwindling human and material reserves.
Regional tensions flare as blockade spreads beyond Mali
The Malian blockade has evolved into a cross-border crisis. Neighboring economies—particularly those of Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—are grappling with the fallout of disrupted West African trade corridors. The slowdown in goods traffic is straining ports in Dakar and Abidjan, where a significant portion of trade historically flows toward the Sahel hinterland. The Confédération des États du Sahel, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to mount a coordinated response to the jihadists’ economic warfare.
The attack on Manantali also raises urgent questions about shared OMVS installations. Further damage could directly impact electricity supplies in Senegal and Mauritania, transforming a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. External partners—whether development lenders or military suppliers—must now weigh supporting Bamako’s sovereignty claims against protecting critical transboundary infrastructure.
On the ground, the gap between the army’s operational claims and the reality of a capital under siege underscores the conflict’s evolving nature. The Jnim is no longer content to control territory; it seeks to asphyxiate the state itself. New confrontations are expected in the coming days, particularly around Kidal.